Jefferies reports October prediction-market trading growth
Average daily trading volume across prediction-market exchanges tracked by Jefferies increased 55% from September to $4.13 billion in October, according to published reporting on the bank’s research. Analyst Daniel Fannon described the figure as a record for the tracked market, with football trading contributing to the increase.
Open interest also reached a reported record, increasing 45% month over month to $3.27 billion. The measure concerns outstanding positions and is separate from daily trading turnover. Neither figure represents exchange revenue, and the average daily volume should not be described as the aggregate value traded over the entire month.
Fannon attributed sports activity to the NFL and college football seasons, alongside the opening of the NBA campaign. Reporting on the research also identified growth in non-sports contracts during the period leading into the U.S. midterm elections. Those explanations are the analyst’s assessment of the activity recorded across the platforms covered.
Sports trading supports wider commercial activity
The research also examined combination contracts, which join multiple outcomes in a structure resembling sportsbook parlays. Fannon identified stronger weekend activity and described DraftKings’ DKeX as having a comparatively sports- and combination-heavy product mix. The reported trading statistics do not establish operator profitability or the number of individual customers using those products.
Separately, suppliers have reported extending their prediction-market relationships. In its November 3 results, Sportradar identified new and expanded agreements involving exchanges, brokers, and market makers. The company’s activity includes its Polymarket relationship and the provision of sports content and data to participants in the sector.
The NBA’s recently announced Kalshi relationship provides another example of the commercial arrangements surrounding sports contracts. Kalshi said official league data distributed by Sportradar would support authorized markets, alongside information sharing on integrity concerns. The agreement also restricts permissible contracts and prohibits NBA and team personnel from trading league-related event contracts.
