LeoVegas recorded uptime of 97.8% by match duration at the U.S. Open but 88.3% when weighted by exchange wagering, the largest gap among 18 operators analysed by Bettormetrics. The figures were published on Tuesday, September 29.
The study covered $64m in exchange wagering across 39 in-play men’s singles matches. Bettormetrics compared each operator’s pricing and availability with exchange prices, then measured the results twice: by share of match time, and by share of exchange matched wagering that took place while the operator’s markets were live. The company notes that exchange wagering is not sportsbook wagering and cannot be used to calculate an operator’s lost revenue directly.
Superbet showed a similar duration-based result to LeoVegas, but its wagering-weighted uptime was 97.5%. LeoVegas was the only operator in the sample below 90% on that basis.
Sabin Brooks, CEO of Bettormetrics, commented on the results. “What the US Open clearly shows is that traditional uptime alone is no longer enough. It tells an operator how often it was available but not whether it was available when it mattered most.”
Bet365 and DraftKings recorded the highest theoretical arbitrage figures by duration.
Margins and arbitrage
The study also looked at “theoretical arbitrage”, meaning at least one selection was priced so a customer could in theory back it profitably against the exchange. Bettormetrics does not say every such opportunity was verified as executable.
Pinnacle had the tightest average overround in the sample at 3.7%, with theoretical arbitrage of 4.8% by duration. Bettormetrics found that, across the 18 operators, tighter margins were generally linked to more theoretical arbitrage. DraftKings, with a 4.5% overround, recorded 14.9% arbitrage by duration.
bet365 had the highest average arbitrage by duration at 16%. In Mariano Navone’s five-set win over Novak Djokovic, it was in theoretical arbitrage on at least one selection for 56.5% of the match.
Prediction market data
Bettormetrics is also integrating prediction market data with its existing exchange data. The company said this will allow the analysis to be extended to more sports where sufficient liquidity is available, including the NFL and NBA.
